Risk-based whole life cost analysis for Crossrail (UK) to support design options selection

London, United Kingdom

Partners

Crossrail
EC Harris (acquired by Arcadis)
Scott Wilson (acquired by URS)

Services

Tender preparation
Whole life cost modelling
Advanced risk analytics
Asset performance and optimisation
Total cost of ownership

Challenge

Crossrail's on-network works involved upgrades to numerous existing stations along the Elizabeth line. Each station presented multiple design options with different capital costs, maintenance profiles, and operational implications. The programme needed a consistent, risk-informed approach to evaluate and compare these options.

Solution

Floreer developed a whole life cost model that incorporated probabilistic risk analysis for each design option. The model captured capital expenditure, operational costs, maintenance regimes, renewal cycles, and disposal costs over the asset lifecycle. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the key cost drivers and risk factors for each option.

Outcome

The analysis provided Crossrail with a transparent, auditable basis for selecting design options that delivered the best whole life value. Several design decisions were revised based on the findings, resulting in significant long-term cost savings without compromising operational performance.

Our Work