Risk advisory to the Tidal Lagoon Swansea Bay and it's energy yield model

Gloucester, Gloucestershire, United Kingdom

Partners

Tidal Lagoon Power

Services

Advanced risk analytics
Total cost of ownership

Challenge

The Tidal Lagoon Swansea Bay was a pioneering renewable energy project that would generate electricity from tidal movements in Swansea Bay. A critical element of the business case was the energy yield model, which predicted how much electricity the lagoon would generate. Significant uncertainties in tidal patterns, turbine performance, and sedimentation needed to be understood and quantified to give investors and stakeholders confidence in the project's viability.

Solution

Floreer conducted advanced risk analysis on the energy yield model, identifying and quantifying the key sources of uncertainty. This involved Monte Carlo simulation of tidal data, turbine efficiency curves, and environmental factors. Floreer worked with the project's engineering team to validate model assumptions and develop a probabilistic output that communicated the range of expected energy generation.

Outcome

The risk-informed energy yield analysis provided investors and stakeholders with a transparent view of the project's generation potential and the associated uncertainties. The analysis strengthened the business case by demonstrating that even under conservative assumptions, the project delivered attractive returns.

Our Work